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  #1  
Old 04-12-2005, 10:59 PM
Jeff Pelz Jeff Pelz is offline
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Current knife selling climate.

Hello Les,

We haven't had a post in a while. And I hope you are doing well. You always have a fair and informative knowledge, given to the knife community.
Could I ask you what your feeling are on the various categories of knives. Of the various types which are still in demand and which others have cooled off, in the current market.

Thank you
Jeff
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  #2  
Old 04-28-2005, 08:20 AM
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Les Robertson Les Robertson is offline
 
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Hi Jeff,

The selling climate is excellent right now, actually it always is. I realize that will start some heads shaking "No, you're wrong".

I said the "Selling Climate" is excellent right now. I didn't say that everyone was selling.

Knife Show, Veags, ECCKS and Oregon to name a few have been down in attendance and sales. Why? To many knife shows and too many knife makers asking too much money for their knives. Although I suspect Solvang this weekend will do very well. Why? much smaller show (collector to maker ration is much higher) a very established show and many very establshed makers who's knives sell for a premium in the aftermarket.

Internet sales are going up every day. However, on the forums the knives are slower to sell and ususally not unitl there have been a few price drops...if then? Why? Look at the makers who's knives are being sold on these forums and the prices being asked. In many cases the origingal buyer got caught up buying a knife from the flavor of the month maker. That maker is no longer the flavor of the month and as such they no longer hold a position of sales power.

Several better known Forum makers have seen their aftermarket shrink and the demand for their knives slow. This causes more of their knives to be offered for sale (the seller hopes to move the knife before they take a loss). More of that makers knives on the forums and Internet for sale = less desierablilty and less demand.
'
This is not to say that this cannot be turned around. Generally if a maker is successful with one knife they can be successful with another knife. The trap is, do they believe their old market or what the current market is telling them. Coming in at a price point that is too high will slow them down even further.

Speaking of price point, this is one of the biggest concerns in the market right now. It seems that many collectors are now at least considering a knife potential for resale in the aftermarket (wonder where they got that idea). The Internet has been around long enough now that it's easy to do some research on aftermarket performance. Again, this in no where near the most important aspect of knife collecting, but it is becoming an "aspect" of knife collecting.

After all, how many thousands of dollars worth of knives in your collection does it take before you come to the conclusion that you are an "investor"?

Buyers are now demanding more value for their money. As such if a makers work does not appear to be worth that...to the collector....they are not going to sell as many knives as they used to.

Collectors are now becoming aware of makers who are not just having blades and/or frames cut for them by someone else. But their bolsters and handle scales as well. Additionally, all the holes are being pre-drilled as well. All this work outsourced and price remains the same? I discovred this when I asked a maker to modify a knife slightly (add a bolster) and was turned down. I said to him, "I thought you were a custom knife maker"? I started to do some research and found out why. I have not bought another knife from him.

If a maker is going to to this, be up front and offer it as a "mid-tech" model. Obviously it has not hurt Ken Onion doing this.

Ok, whats hot!

Come on Jeff, don't you read the magazines? I was interviewed in Blade and Knives Illustrated on this very subject! Didn't you see all the "congrats" from the fourm for being in the magazines!

By the way the knife carrying bags I sell and I are in the newest issue of Blade! So buy a bag and find out what all the excitement is about. We now return you to our regularly scheduled program.

Tactical Fixed Blades
Hunters
Multi-Blades
Forged Bowies
Forged Hunters
Tactial Folders

The tacical folder catagory gives the false impression that it has slowed down. It has only for those makers who were late comers and and/or those who are charging too much for their knives based on their position in this makert.

Right now one of the best values in a custom knife are the forged hunters. The $275 - $450 range offers a wide variety of knives from several excellent makers.

Forged Bowies in the $800 - $1200 range are very hot as well.

Hope this helps Jeff.


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  #3  
Old 04-28-2005, 10:27 AM
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RogerP RogerP is offline
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Excellent information as always Les. I have a specific follow-up question: what ever happened to the mini-bowie? By this, I mean the small, personal carry clip-point double-guard fixed blade in the 4 to 5 " blade length range. Fisk's Gumbyaha and Flournoy's Roughneck come to mind as examples.

I don't attend a lot of knife shows, so my perception of the prevalence of any given style is very much internet-skewed (and to a much lesser extent, magazine-skewed). However, it seems to me that I saw a LOT more of these knives 2 or 3 years ago than I do now. You could always count on a handful to appear on dealer sites in the aftermath of a major show, but I have seen less and less, Les. (Sorry, couldn't resist). The big forged bowies and hunters are as strong as ever (as you have noted) but is the popualrity of the mini-bowie waning?

For what it's worth, I've always been a fan of this type of knife.

Roger
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  #4  
Old 04-29-2005, 11:10 AM
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Les Robertson Les Robertson is offline
 
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Hi Roger,

The smaller bowie is a "niche" knife. Their limited popularity had to do mostly with what makes all knives popular...they sell. Few makers are the leaders most are followers. Consequently, when a maker has success with one style of knife. They are more than happy to tell their knife maker buddies. Then their buddies make some and the the trend continues.

This over the course of 18 months generally floods the market. Those who were interested in that style of knife have all the variety they can stand. Most collectors of a particular style of knife will buy them until they feel they have enough. With niche knives, you have fewere collectors who buy those.

Consequently, the market matures and then dies rather quickly. As the makers move on to the next knife that will sell. For all the talk of being "artists" makers understand that the end result of the knives they make is they are supposed to be sold. No maker wants to have the best collection of their own work.

One of the reasons the small bowie's market has shrunk is that makers started making full size bowies for almost the same knife. Makes know the time it takes to make a 10" bowie instead of a 6 or 7" bowie is minimum. However, the maker can get a few hundreded dollars more. More money for the same amount of work, guess what knife the maker wants to make.

Plus, Jim Bowie did not carry a 6" knife.

I don't know if the Mini-Bowie category ever exisisted within the larger market. I always viewed the Fisk and Flournoy you mentioned as more along the lines of a hunter.

Actually, I think the demand for the PC knives from Fisk, Flournoy, Primos and Gatlin are still pretty hot. I have several orders on the books for these knives.

Lastly, it is price point. PC knives are usually priced higher than a hunter.

Hope this helps.


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  #5  
Old 04-29-2005, 06:14 PM
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RogerP RogerP is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Les Robertson
Hope this helps.

Yep. Makes good sense.

Roger
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  #6  
Old 04-30-2005, 08:48 PM
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bandaidman bandaidman is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Les Robertson



Collectors are now becoming aware of makers who are not just having blades and/or frames cut for them by someone else. But their bolsters and handle scales as well. Additionally, all the holes are being pre-drilled as well. All this work outsourced and price remains the same? I discovred this when I asked a maker to modify a knife slightly (add a bolster) and was turned down. I said to him, "I thought you were a custom knife maker"? I started to do some research and found out why. I have not bought another knife from him.

If a maker is going to to this, be up front and offer it as a "mid-tech" model. Obviously it has not hurt Ken Onion doing this.

les, you know from past discussions i am not a big fan of the outsourcing trend...remember all those handmade vs custom fracas on the "other" forum?

i have always felt that having machine shops/helpers/ cnc machines doing major parts of the work dilute the "value" and certainly the uniqueness of the piece.

do you see a trend to buyers prefering more "handmade" knives over knives not entirely made by the maker and/or partially machine made? ken onion is the rare maker whose knives are popular no matter what the method there are made by. i admire his honesty both in being upfront with how the "mid-techs" are made and how he prices them.

i wonder if the trend towards ABS makers is partially a reflection of peoples desires to have more "handmade" pieces?...and yes i know many of them use power hammers are are not forging the entire blade by hand like blacksmiths of old. i also realize a lot of the appeal is the amazing quality that is coming out of that camp too.

les...you frequently and correctly comment online how chris reeve knives are factory knives and not "customs." has the line been blurred so much now that there is not much difference between between CRK and many custom makers?

how much outsourcing/cnc should be allowed and the piece still be considered "custom"?
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  #7  
Old 05-01-2005, 10:17 AM
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Les Robertson Les Robertson is offline
 
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HI Bandaid,

Collectors and makers who weren't around 10-12 years ago probably cannot comprehend what occured with the advent of the "tactical" folder. I believe had this market and methodology not occured not only the custom knife market but the factory knife market would not even be close to the size of the markets that each enjoys today.

The utilization of laser, EMD, CNC, water jet, etc. Brought about a revolution in the price point of custom folders.

Then as today, price point has come to the forefront as one of the main considerations regarding the purchase of a custom knife.

Quite frankly the public has spoken, they prefer having a knife at a substantially lower price and having the "monkey" work done outside the makers shop.

As you point out I was bringing Chris Reeve to task several years ago. When the Sebenza won the "Best Manufactured" knife of the year at the 2000 Blade Show all of the critics to my comments were silenced. Some were very upset as they were made to look like fools due to their blind obidience to Reeve's knvies. I have always felt that deep down they knew, but did not want to "look behind the curtain".

Same with Randall's, although there it had to do more with money than a manufacture technique. After all when is the last time a Randall made a Randall.

I agree with you that the lines are getting blurred when it comes to factory/custom. This is why the collector must do their homework. If you want to stop a trend simply stop spending money on it.

Knife makers can talk all they want about artistic integrity. However, since very few knife makers buy knives, it is the collectors who dictate where the market goes. If a knife maker isn't selling their knives or not making enough money to make a "living" wage they have two choices. Make what the market is asking for and/or utilize exsisting technology to reduce the cost and increase their profit.

I think the ABS has caught on for two main reasons:

1) Jerry Fisk

2) Their school and standards.

Yes, they are also utilizing the technologies that exsist today.

Collectors have to understand that if a maker cannot make a knife and make a profit as well as staying competitive in todays market. They are no longer a knife maker.

When a collector walks into the Blade Show I don't think they give any thought to how many millions of dollars worth of machines, parts, materials, etc. have been utilized to put all of those knives on the tables. Like it or not a reasonable profit has to be made to pay for all of that.

Collectors love to go to dealers tables and enjoy the opportunity that they are afforded for side by side comparison. But then some balk at the prices being asked. I don't think collectors understand what it takes to keep a standing inventory of $50,000 - $100,000 worth of custom knives. You put together the top 12-15 dealers in the US and you are looking at $1,000,000 worth of custom knives for immediate delivery.

I know most collectors and a surprising number of maker who don't want to view custom knives as a business. However, it is.

The US Knifemakers Guild has set down standards that have removed some of the biggest names in custom knives from their show and organization. The biggest question would be. How do you charge $700 for a knife that is normally sold with the help of outsourcing for $500. The answer is you don't. Why, because the end result is identical. So the maker who is the business of custom knives simply drops their association with that organization and the show.

This position by the Guild has weakened their show and improved the position of the Blade Show.

Oddly enough, while the Guild will not allow laser cut parts they will allow one of the most important aspects of a knife to be outsourced. That would be a blade's heat treat. If a knife is heat treated by someone else, is it really a custom knife?

Lots of questions and cosiderations. Collectors and dealers alike vote with their dollars.

It is up to the collector to educate themselves and then decide what is most important to them.


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  #8  
Old 05-08-2005, 02:00 PM
tom mayo tom mayo is offline
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Thats some good info.............thanks Les!


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  #9  
Old 05-08-2005, 09:30 PM
delander delander is offline
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What is a custom knife?

If we look at other venues, we see "custom cars" (i.e. George Barras), "custom motorcycles" (i.e. Orange County Choppers), "custom homes", and so on.
None of the above "customizers" even make 25-30% of their product. The "custom" in the above comes into play in the conceptual organization and assembly of outsourced components. And, none of the above comes off a "cookie cutter" assembly line.
To address "hand-made", what percentage of the work allows a knife to be so-called? Is the use of stabilized scales a "production" product? Is the use of a power grinder, drill press or other device sufficient to disallow the claim to the knife being "handmade"?
A knifemaker cannot make the blade material, so is it that much of a stretch to have the blade outline cut before the material is delivered? Is this substantially different than having scale material pre-cut, or should the purist be forced to cut the burl, slab the stone or wrestle the entire antler?
To me, a "custom" knife is a non-assembly line, non mass production knife.
Perhaps a sub-set of the "custom" knife may be the "handcrafted" knife, but, I don't know where I'd set the demarcation line.
It is sufficient for me to know that an individual laboured, sweated and probably swore, while making my "custom" knife.

Last edited by delander; 05-10-2005 at 10:46 PM.
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  #10  
Old 05-09-2005, 09:20 AM
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Les Robertson Les Robertson is offline
 
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Hi Delander,

Excellent points.

Each industry or organization will eventually develop it's own lexicon or words, phrases or initials that will mean something to those involved in it. Anyone who has ever been in the Military knows exactly what I am talkiing about.

A lexicon is developed to help people discuss their products within a certain group.

The same applies to "Custom" Knives. Arugements have raged since I have been involved with this over 22 years.

At this point "Custom" knives is now more of a common marketing term than a literal term. Other examples are "tactical" and "handmade".

The closest thing we get to a handmade knife is a "napped" obsidian or flint knife. Even that uses hand tools.

There is no such thing as a literal "handmade" knife. Again, "handmade" has come to signify anything made by hand, usually involving a lot of hand work. Not necessairly completely done by hand.

Classifying sub-sets of custom knives exists, primarily "Forged" and Stock Removal". We then get into categories Folders and Fixed blades, and then further sub-sets of those, i.e. slip joints and hunters.

Collecting custom knives for most buyers is a very personal thing. Ultimately, each determines the criteria for thier collection. This is probably the biggest obstacle to creating the demarcation line.


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